April 16 2020
Here’s what Chief Economist of the World Bank LAC had to say.
Here’s what chief economist of the World Bank (LAC) Martín Rama recently had to say during an interview found on Dominican today. Rama expects Latin America and the Caribbean region will fall 4.6%. Quoting Martín Rama:
“In a pessimistic forecast, the World Bank revealed yesterday that the Latin American and Caribbean region would register a sharp fall of 4.6% this year, except for Guyana, which will grow 51.7%, and the Dominican Republic, which will end with flat growth of zero.
However, the multilateral financial organization projects a rebound for 2021 of 2.6% in the region, when the gross domestic product of the Dominican Republic will grow 2.5% and 4% in 2022. The area will experience a sharp recession due to the impact of Covid-19, except for the DR and Guyana, he added.”
Interesting but I can’t help but wonder. We’ve been under a total global lockdown that’s heading into its fifth week. How’s it possible that the Caribbean is only a meager 4.5% down from last year’s GDP for the same time period?
I’d bet anyone reading this post that if you’d head out and approach any manager owner landlord whatever and asked them they’re thoughts well… I’m confident you’d be receiving a different response. That is if you can even find a hotel, all-inclusive, restaurant, bar lounge mall that’s even open. I’m leaving our nation’s 8 International Airports out of it as they’re all closed too!
We’ve lived here for a long while and I’ve got my hand on the economic pulse of the island. According to Rama the DR should stay flat being neutral no loss no gain. This is total BS! Common sense will tell you that. We’ve been closed for business during our most important months. Our fifth week of what would arguably be some of the busiest months of the tourist season and we’re even??? Honestly you can’t make this stuff up.
Taking a 180 degree shift into what we feel’s the right ticket I’m also including another article from Dominican Today titled: Agriculture is the sector that could help the Dominican economy recover when the crisis ends. The following comes from Agnes Milqueya Mateo director of the USAD School of Economics.
“The director of the UASD School of Economics, Agnes Milqueya Mateo, pointed out that the national productive apparatus should be strengthened, agreeing with Ciriaco Cruz that priority should be given to agribusiness because it is the sector that will guarantee production in the Dominican Republic. Agriculture and related sectors will guarantee national production, regardless of whether the country advances in other sectors.”
“The director of the Institute for Social and Economic Research of the Autonomous University of Santo Domingo (UASD), Juan del Rosario, bet on focusing attention on agricultural activity with a vocation for production and domestic consumption.”
Have a read on these two short articles linked below. This is the direction that seems to be unfolding over the next half decade. Because of this falsified lockdown we expect commodities to show a nice return over the next four or five years. We also see this based on shortages rather than increase in demand.
The unbiased results show that the Dominican Republic is going to suffer hard in the tourism sector. In fact anything related to the travel and tourism industry is going to suffer severely. We mentors don’t see any way around that. However it’s the other side the not often thought of agriculture sector of the Dominican Republic that for us is where the DR will be shining brightly into the next half decade. The DR has a very respectable rating for its agriculture both in export and domestic markets.
Little known fact it was one of the biggest factors of us choosing to live here. We’re surrounded with food!
I’ve always said the question is not will I be effected. We’re all connected so we’re all going to be effected.The correct question to be asking is to what degree will I be effected.
This is the direction that the mentors feel is the way to look at what’s upcoming and where some possible opportunities may lie hidden among the rubble of a shattered tourist sector. Remember everything’s connected and if you understand that you’ll also understand when I mention that things won’t start falling apart until the sheep get let out of their individual barn stalls. Some refer to this as their home. It’s when the herd supposedly returns to work will the falling domino’s come into play. Until next time.